Wednesday, February 21, 2024

What is Disney doing !?!

 What is Disney Doing!?!?

I would love to know!!




This post is about keeping up with what is going on in a macro sense in the industry. Which means, you have to pay attention to things like this. This helps to anticipate what kind of scripts will be written, and what kinds of movies will be purchased by whom. All of which should inform a producers decision's about project selection. 



This YouTube video seemed to shed some light, but the end, gets kind weird. 

https://youtu.be/GW2Zr8Q6Xqw?si=3HWjT1B19nYHdiib



In response to the above video:

1. So you say the CEI = Corporate Equality Index [How queer friendly is your company] manipulates Disney because if they don't Blackrock won't invest in Disney?

2. Because Blackrock doesn't like stable family structures, "traditional values" because those demographics don't spend as much money as "queer" people?

3. The video does a great job of establishing a time line of events. Overall was very informative.

Lots to unpack here potentially.  I am simply going to follow the money. 

The getting money from Blackrock part just isn't making any sense to me. 

[I am going to use "Blackrock" generically like the video did, as an example of a Mega-Investment company.]

Disney is publicly traded, the investors buy the stock and either hold it or sell it. That's it. If Blackrock owns a massive chuck of Disney stock then they already purchased it.  It doesn't make sense that a profitable version of Disney right up to Endgame would need to all of the sudden pivot to CEI perfect score land to get some sort of loan from Blackrock. Which would seem to be the argument at the end of the video. 

If they were so profitable at the point of Infinity War and End Game why the fuck would they pivot to CEI high score for some random amount of investment when they don't need more investment because they are already profitable? 

It doesn't make sense to have something making a massive multi-billion dollar profit to all of the sudden pivot, to make different money. If Blackrock purchased Disney stock after the Lucasfilm Acquisition and held on until the end of END Game, they would have yielded a SHITTON of profit. To suggest that after that point an intentional PIVOT to the CEI score and that then created LOSING MONEY IP is absurd. Further saying Disney is gonna keep doing that because Blackrock will only stay on as shareholders if the CEI score is high and they are losing money? What? 

Some simple easy to find facts with Google. 

2007 is when Disney first got a perfect score with CEI, Endgame happened in 2019. 

Disney has had a 100 score with CEI that whole time. John Lasseter had made his exit by this time. So by the time Endgame happened and Lasseter was gone the Disney would have been solidly in the black AND complying with the CEI score. 

Why the fuck would they need to pivot so hard? They don't need MORE money from Blackrock they are making them money hand over fist at this point.

You would think the general consensus would be "Keep doing what your doing". They had a 100 CEI score for years at this point. They don't need a loan or something, Blackrock is making money, this whole connection seems like a stretch.

@28:18 "They aren't shrinking budgets and writing better stories..." This is the biggest clue, I get how the video would get it's final premise from this but it's not solid. In fact the video goes in on how Disney has done this before. How Disney didn't look internally and try and fix what they are doing wrong, they just purchased people who are doing it right. Now they are not even doing that, Hmmm. Another clue. 

Lets look at Blackrock for real,  (now I am being specific):

Blackrock doesn't like to lose money. $10 Trillion Dollar company (2023). That said, the losses mentioned in the video are laughable. Overall with BlackRock's portfolio Disney in general would barely merit a conversation. It's like G&E owning Universal Studios  in the 90's. Something like less than 1% of GE's money came from Universal. 

 BlackRock's board is made up of 17 PPL, not very diverse. Only 2 POC and 5 Women, nobody under 50, I would guess. Not likely at a casual glance to be people motivated by social pressure. 


Let's now look at Disney:

Disney reported 7% growth last year (2023) and $88.9 Billion in profit. So even with all the recent issues, making billions of dollars in the black. 

Now go look at Disney's board. 13 PPL, By comparison much more diverse. Young and "Progressive looking".




Final Thoughts:


Point #1
This problem starts and ends inside of Disney, if it's even a problem at all. It's a purposeful paradigm shift that has nothing to do with outside influence or investors. It also has nothing to do with losing money, they are making it. The fact is that the business model has changed and is gonna change even more. They can do whatever they want and still turn enough of a profit.

Point #2
They don't have to care about quality story telling, they don't have to have great characters. They are becoming a Wal-Mart of sorts. Just get some kinda content out and it will make money as long as it's "_____" themed and associated with "______" IP.  

Point #3
At a baseline engaging as many different groups as possible, creating the broadest possible audience is probably more a driving factor than anything. A shotgun blast of hitting as many targets as you can at once, even if it's a lesser impact. Why use buckshot when birdshot will do, and it's cheaper. 

Point #4
It's not a grand conspiracy it's simply minimal effort for safe mid level returns. They are gonna triple down on this. Amazon has a 100 score with CEI. Guess what, they are doing the same thing. I don't think it's about being "woke = broke" I think something else is going on here. This whole thing is gonna turn out to be about money and the "how streamers actually make money" paradigm waaaaay more than anything else. 

The part that is actually important is:

$200 M into a movie that only makes $450 Million in the box office, so loses money with P&A costs. Then again does it really? How has streaming really changed this paradigm, I am gonna guess that's if you can ply subscribers with "New ________" you can sell that to advertisers and make money 2x. If they watch the whole thing, you win. Box office + AD Sales + Steaming and all of this before the other windows of exhibition. 

That's the real question, lets see if I am right next week.  



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